Copper

Copper encountered resistance at around USD10,179 during late-February 2011 and saw a correction of the up move from USD2,767 to USD10,179. It eventually found support between 38.2% and 50% of the up move. Since then, it has been inching higher. On the weekly charts, it is consolidating in a triangular formation. In addition, MACD line is above the zero line on the daily as well as weekly charts. Above technical facts suggest that it is likely to trade with a positive bias in the medium term. On the upside, USD8,150 and USD8,400 is the resistance zone. A close above USD8,600 would result in immense optimism in the market and, as a result, the up move may get extended up to the previous higher levels (USD9,200 and USD9,600). On a number of occasions, prices have rebounded after finding support near the upward sloping trend line at around USD7,500. Eventually, copper faced resistance near USD8,162. It has now ended below the 20-day SMA and RSI has turned down, suggesting it could continue to correct in the forthcoming trading session. Furthermore, the daily MACD line is below the signal line. It is likely to find support at USD7,728 and USD7,580. Price could decline and re-test the upward sloping trend line. USD7,580 happens to be the trendline point, which could act as support.

Zinc

On the weekly charts, zinc has closed above the downward sloping trend line. Over the past one year, it has been consolidating in the band of USD1,760 and USD2,110. Going forward, if it sustains above the upper band, i.e. USD2,110, it could test USD2,260 and USD2,332. The next resistance zone lies around USD2,500. However, on the daily charts, RSI has turned flat after testing the overbought territory. Moreover, it is approaching the previous swing high of USD2,090. Hence, a short-term correction from the resistance levels cannot be ruled out. USD1,973 and USD1,869 are the immediate support zones for the week. On the other side, any close above USD2,110 would reinforce the positive momentum. In such a scenario, zinc could test 2,250 and 2,400. On the monthly charts, RSI is on the verge of entering the positive territory, confirming the above fact. On the daily charts, prices are comfortably placed above the short-term and medium-term moving averages.

Aluminum

After encountering resistance at around USD2,772 in late-April 2011, aluminum has been in a medium-term downtrend. However, it found support near the 61.8% retracement level of the up move from USD1,251 to USD2,772. Since then, it is trading higher. On the weekly charts, aluminum is approaching the USD2,200 level. Hence, it could correct up to USD2,017 and USD1,980. It is likely to find support at those levels. Medium-term bias remains positive as weekly momentum oscillators are positively poised. On the daily charts, it is trading above the medium and long-term moving averages. Hence, closing above USD2,200 would attract positive attempts for the possible test of the USD2,300 and USD2,500 levels.

Brent crude

It is evident from the weekly charts that Brent crude has been consolidating in a downward sloping channel over the past few weeks. It is trading in the range of USD104.50 and USD112.50. It closed higher on Wednesday while extending the trading range of the past seven weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady-to-higher opening. MACD line and the RSI are bullish, signaling that sideways-to-higher prices are possible in the near term. It needs to close above USD115 and USD119 to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the high crossing at USD115. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at USD119. On the downside, USD106 and USD103 could act as the demand zone. Bias could remain positive until the commodity holds above USD103.

Gold

It can be seen from the weekly chart that gold attempted to break above the USD1,800 levels but failed. Since the last 13 weeks, the yellow metal has been consolidating between the USD1,650 and USD1,780 levels.  Since gold has made a lower high, the structure is looking very bearish, and it seems that the commodity would break below the recent lows of USD1,660. On the weekly charts, momentum oscillators are in the sell mode, confirming this trend. On the monthly chart, we can see that October was a negative month for gold, November was doji and the current month has formed an open high candle. I think that the current month would see a large correction in gold prices and it may push prices toward the USD1,630 or USD1,580 levels. However, on the daily charts, it is hovering near the 200-day SMA. Hence, it could witness a likely pause in the current down move. The commodity could rebound up to USD1,694 and USD1,715 in the forthcoming trading session. On the quarterly chart, gold has failed to move above the USD1,800 levels since last five quarters, which means that any sustained up move is possible only if it closes above USD1,800 on a monthly basis.

Silver

Silver closed lower on Wednesday as it extended its decline since peaking in
November. The RSI is oversold but remains neutral to bearish, signaling that sideways-to-lower prices are possible in the near term. However, on the daily charts, it is approaching the 200-day SMA. Hence, if it holds above USD30.75, then there is a possibility of a bounce back in the near term. Selling pressure could intensify if silver convincingly trades below USD30.75 and USD30.40. In such a scenario, USD29.40 is the next downside target. On the weekly charts, it has faced resistance near the downward sloping trend line, suggesting restricted upside potential. In addition, weekly RSI is in sell mode, confirming this trend. Conversely, silver could face the next layer of resistance at around USD32.50 (20-day EMA). Second resistance is the December high crossing at USD33.76. A close above USD35.40, which is the multiple resistance zone, would halt the bearish tone.